The Arctic region is transforming right before our eyes — experiencing changes that are faster than anywhere else on Earth. Warming ocean temperatures, frequency of synoptic systems, and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns contribute to the accelerated opening of new geographies and resources that here before have been frozen and locked away. And as our growing contemporary Arctic datasets continue to reveal important climate trends, it is inevitable to be reflective about the impending geosystems changes, and its associated socioeconomic impacts in regional- to global-scales.
Last year, the Arctic sea ice extent set the second-lowest winter maximum since we started satellite monitoring in 1979. This year’s winter sea ice extent of 14.48 million km2 was just slightly greater than last year’s sea ice gains of 14.42 million km2. In terms of summer minima, last year’s melt dipped to 4.64 million km2 almost matching the lowest recorded Arctic minimum extent of 4.09 million km2 in 2012. Considering all of summer Arctic sea ice extent satellite observations in the last 39 years, the Arctic sea ice has been declining at a rate of 13.2% per decade. Additionally, observed melting is happening to multiyear ice — the thicker type of sea ice that can generally withstand at least one melt season. If this steady decline in sea ice extent and generation of younger and thinner sea ice continue, experts predict that the Arctic will have ice-free summers in 30 years. This can potentially open up a large area of international waters, referred to as the “doughnut hole” (seen in figure below as the light blue area), which recently has been bolstering the Arctic’s economic and commercial relevance in the world.
Maritime jurisdiction and boundaries in the Arctic region. [IBRU Center for Borders Research, Durham University, 2015]
Already today, the changes that are happening in the Arctic are starting to frame the new geo-economics in the region. New shipping routes, oil and gas production, fisheries, scientific explorations, tourism, and military investments are now being included in the national strategies, not just of the Arctic states, but also of other export-driven nations. Just last month, Russia announced that it is building a $320 million icebreaker that can carve out ice up to 2 meters thick and can haul 16.5 million tons of liquefied natural gas per year. This will be part of Russia’s increased presence in high north, which already includes a number of ice breakers, military bases and infrastructures, and fuel rigs. The U.S. follows suit by disclosing that the government is currently rewriting its Arctic strategy, which entails building at least six additional icebreakers among others. China has also recently classified itself as a “Near-Arctic State”. Although the developing race to untapped resources appears like there is tension brewing in the high north, there is also evidence that the Arctic is actually evolving as a place of international cooperation and collaboration through organizations such as the Arctic Council, the Nordic Council, as well as the International Arctic Science Committee. This is unraveling as Arctic nations are realizing that the potential economic boon can only be achieved through an effective circumpolar cooperation and understanding.
Another aspect in the Arctic discourse are the profound climatic and environmental impacts an ice-free Arctic brings. Extensive summer melting is expected to produce positive and negative feedback between the ocean and atmosphere, which implies dramatic changes in global climate, ecosystems, and human activities in the region. The foremost effect of the receding Arctic sea ice is the significant reduction of our planet’s albedo. This means that the planet will be absorbing more solar energy rather than reflecting it back into space. This can further hike up surface temperatures, which can lead to more environmental dilemma such as melting of ice sheets. Large amounts of meltwater flowing through the North Atlantic is also predicted to disrupt the great ocean conveyor belt, also known as the thermohaline circulation (THC). The THC is a system of wind-driven surface currents and density-driven deep currents that is responsible in the redistribution of heat, thus modulating the Earth’s climate. Results of model simulations show that a THC shutdown could result to cooling events over Western Europe, drastic precipitation changes in Europe, Central America, and Southeast Asia, and local rise in sea level especially along the Atlantic coasts. Another concern is the potential release of powerful greenhouse gases that have been trapped in the Arctic permafrost, triggering runaway global warming. In the regional scale, Arctic coasts are increasingly becoming vulnerable to flooding, erosion, and oil spill pollution, which has adverse effects on coastal communities and wildlife habitats.
Without a doubt, changes leading to a “New” Arctic will fundamentally alter not just the geopolitics of the region, but most importantly, the global climate and ecosystems. And as nations are starting to rewrite their Arctic strategies, it is imperative that it includes not just plans for military and commercial infrastructure build-up; but also plans to support sustainable development and environmental protection in cooperation with indigenous communities. Likewise, large spreads still exist in current climate models for key parameters such as temperature and sea ice. Through sustained government support in improving our system-level understanding of coupled processes and feedbacks in the region, we can hopefully advance our predictive skill and ability to pinpoint linkages with lower latitudes. Due to the likely serious climatic impacts of changes in the Arctic region, it makes sense for geo-economic activities to go hand in hand with continued quantification of model uncertainties, improvement of polar research techniques, and concerted effort on quality data gathering that will translate to meaningful global risk assessment and mitigation strategies.
Originally published by CGE in Medium: https://medium.com/@ceidel2/ice-free-is-the-new-arctic-fc81e3750f44
###
Opmerkingen